03/01/2017

Predictions for 2017

Politics
  1. Total terrorism death toll < 30,000. 70%.
  2. Total malarial death toll > 350,000. 90%.
  3. Total malarial death toll < 500,000. 80%.
  4. No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world (HDI > 0.8): 80%
  5. No terrorist attack causes >500 deaths in the less developed world: 70%.
  6. No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths: 55%.

  7. No country will leave the Eurozone. 80%
  8. Fewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016. 80%
  9. Front National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election. 80%
  10. Le Pen will lose the presidential election. 55%
  11. Front National will not end up in power. 80%
  12. Partij voor de Vrijheid will gain 5+ seats in the Dutch election. 70%
  13. PVV will not end up in power. 80%.
  14. Alternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election. 70%
  15. AfD will not end up in power 70%.
  16. No second Scottish independence referendum announced. 80%
  17. There will be no formal agreement on UK membership of the common market, post-Brexit. 80%
  18. The UK triggers Article 50. 80%
  19. No snap UK general election. 55%
  20. Conditional on no GE, no new leadership challenge to Corbyn. 70%
  21. May's approval rating above 30%. 55%

  22. China will not enter recession. 80%
  23. No large revolt against North Korea’s government (riots or civil war). 95%
  24. No major revolt (Tiananmen Square+) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%
  25. Putin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there. 90%
  26. Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. 80%.
  27. Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. 70%
  28. Joseph Kabila will not be in power. 55%
  29. Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. 55%
  30. Erdogan will not be so honoured. 70%
  31. The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) 70%
  32. Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. 55%.
  33. Syrian ceasefire will not last. 70%
  34. Assad will remain President of Syria. 70%.
  35. Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. 70%

TRUMP
  1. Trump will not be impeached. 90%
  2. No new prosecution of Hillary Clinton. 90%
  3. US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers: 70%
  4. Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. 55%
  5. Trump will end the year above 35% approval. 70%
  6. Trump’s approval will be below 60% throughout the year. 90%.
  7. Mexican wall will become a fence, but symbolic structures will be under construction. 70%
  8. TPP will not be ratified this year. 80%
  9. US will not withdraw from TPP. 55%
  10. Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a third. 55%
  11. Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). 70%
  12. F-35 program will not be curtailed. 70%

Other
  1. 2016 will remain the hottest year on record. 90%
  2. Bitcoin will end the year above $400. 70%
  3. Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. 55%
  4. EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by an independent party. 80%
  5. There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. 70%
  6. No attempt of a human head transplant. 80%
  7. No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. 95%
  8. No verified quantum supremacy this year. 55%
  9. The SAV001 HIV vaccine will show significant results, Cohen's d > 0.3. 55%
  10. At least one PlayStation-level data breach. 80%
  11. "Data science" hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. 70%
  12. A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. 80%
  13. Conditional on it occurring, it will have disappointing results. (Cohen's d < 0.3)70%

Personal
  1. I will be in the same job. 80%
  2. I will not be offered a Summer Fellowship at CEA. 70%
  3. I donate 20% of pre-tax income to a new basket of charities. 90%
  4. I will reduce my reading to <50 books. 90%
  5. I will post fewer posts. 80%
  6. I will complete two decent-sized software projects. 55%
  7. I will join a choir. 55%
  8. I will not play Civ. 70%
  9. I will use Airbnb at least once in 2017: 60%

  10. I will get 70% of these predictions right. (Correct sign) 70%
  11. I will get a Brier score of > 0.2. 55%
  12. I will be 5%+ underconfident on these predictions. 55%





Known other predictors: Anders Sandberg, Scott Alexander, John Vert, Stephen Carter,

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